Deinze 0-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deinze vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SK Beveren make the trip to Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion to face Deinze in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 15 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Deinze (all games): 2W 4D 1L across 7 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.43 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.71 goals per game, with 1.29 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Deinze have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion, Deinze have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SK Beveren's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 0D 3L from 7 games (1.71 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.14 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's away record: 3W 0D 1L from 4 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.75 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.25 exceeds their overall 1.71 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.43 PPG for Deinze against 1.71 for SK Beveren. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Deinze register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, SK Beveren in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Deinze lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Deinze winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Deinze — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deinze 86% and SK Beveren 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 57% | SK Beveren 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.29 xG and SK Beveren 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 0.975 / defence 1.132 | SK Beveren attack 1.149 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.599. Data: 7 Deinze games / 7 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 21% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 53%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | SK Beveren 1.89. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 100% | SK Beveren 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 21% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Deinze 1.29 / SK Beveren 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 0.975 / def 1.132 | SK Beveren attack 1.149 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.599 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
2.08
SK Beveren xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs SK Beveren kick off?
Deinze vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 October 2021 at Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion.
What was the final score in Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Deinze 0 - 0 SK Beveren.
Where is Deinze vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion.
What competition is Deinze vs SK Beveren part of?
Deinze vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 21% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Deinze and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and SK Beveren?
Record (1 meetings): Deinze 1W | Draws 0 | SK Beveren 0W.
What form are Deinze and SK Beveren in?
Deinze (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-0D-3L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Deinze's attack rating (0.97) and SK Beveren's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (1.15x) against Deinze's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
21%
4.83
27%
3.76
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Deinze xG
Total xG
3.38
2.08
SK Beveren xG
4.83
21%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
12%
8.00
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
3%
38.65
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Deinze and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Deinze and 2.08 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 2W 4D 1L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Deinze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SK Beveren's form line: 4W 0D 3L from 7 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Deinze against 1.71 for SK Beveren. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Deinze have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Deinze are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.14 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.33 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won 4-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deinze have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Deinze
4
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and SK Beveren?
From 9 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, SK Beveren have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Deinze 3-1 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Deinze, 67% for SK Beveren — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Deinze and 100% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Deinze's games and 67% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deinze vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Deinze's matches and 100% of SK Beveren's.
Do Deinze and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Deinze's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Burgermeester Van De Wiele Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Deinze and SK Beveren drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.29 xG and SK Beveren 2.08 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Deinze fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SK Beveren landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 0.97 / defence 1.13 against SK Beveren attack 1.15 / defence 1.11, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 21% | Draw 27% | SK Beveren 53%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 57%, SK Beveren 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.43 PPG, SK Beveren 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.