WSG Wattens 0-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Sturm Graz at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: WSG Wattens 1.70 PPG, Sturm Graz 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. WSG Wattens register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, WSG Wattens have won 0, Sturm Graz 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 57% and Sturm Graz 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (WSG Wattens 68% | Sturm Graz 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.04 xG and Sturm Graz 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.023 / defence 1.243 | Sturm Graz attack 1.087 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.371. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 WSG Wattens games / 43 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 21% | Draw 23% | Sturm Graz 56%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Sturm Graz 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 60% | Sturm Graz 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 21% | Draw 23% | Sturm Graz 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG WSG Wattens 1.04 / Sturm Graz 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 1.023 / def 1.243 | Sturm Graz attack 1.087 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Sturm Graz xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
WSG Wattens 0 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz part of?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 21% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Record (2 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 1.02x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
21%
4.78
23%
4.42
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.89
1.85
Sturm Graz xG
4.78
21%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
16%
6.37
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
3%
30.45
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.85 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 19W 11D 23L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 29W 14D 10L from 53 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Venue Form
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 12W 9D 5L from 26 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.83 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 19W 11D 23L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 29W 14D 10L in their last 53 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.35 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.73 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Sturm Graz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 58%, Sturm Graz 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (WSG Wattens) and 54% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 31%; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of WSG Wattens's games and 65% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of WSG Wattens's matches and 54% of Sturm Graz's.
Do WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat WSG Wattens 0-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.04 xG and Sturm Graz 1.85 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.02 / defence 1.24 against Sturm Graz attack 1.09 / defence 0.74, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 21% | Draw 23% | Sturm Graz 56%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 68%, Sturm Graz 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.