WSG Wattens 2-3 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Austria Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: WSG Wattens 1.00 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Austria Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against WSG Wattens's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Austria Vienna winning.
It is worth noting that Austria Vienna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 58% versus Austria Vienna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 52% | Austria Vienna 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.40 xG and Austria Vienna 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.147 / defence 1.053 | Austria Vienna attack 1.164 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.260. Data: 30 WSG Wattens games / 31 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 41%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Vienna 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 80% | Austria Vienna 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG WSG Wattens 1.40 / Austria Vienna 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 1.147 / def 1.053 | Austria Vienna attack 1.164 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Austria Vienna xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
WSG Wattens 2 - 3 Austria Vienna.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna part of?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 35% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
Record (7 meetings): WSG Wattens 1W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 5W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 1.15x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
35%
2.89
24%
4.08
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.94
1.54
Austria Vienna xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
7%
13.56
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.54 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 9W 12D 19L from 40 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 22W 7D 11L across 40 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Austria Vienna by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 5W 7D 7L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 10W 4D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.48 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 9W 12D 19L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 22W 7D 11L in their last 40 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.16 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.79 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Austria Vienna 0-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 58%, Austria Vienna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (WSG Wattens) and 42% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 32%; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of WSG Wattens's games and 53% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 42% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out WSG Wattens 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat WSG Wattens 2-3 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.40 xG and Austria Vienna 1.54 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.15 / defence 1.05 against Austria Vienna attack 1.16 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 41%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 52%, Austria Vienna 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.