Wolfsberger AC 2-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Lavanttal Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wolfsberger AC at 1.60 PPG versus TSV Hartberg's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Wolfsberger AC have won 2, TSV Hartberg 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wolfsberger AC in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 54% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 54% | TSV Hartberg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.92 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.163 / defence 1.250 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.984 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.198. Data: 30 Wolfsberger AC games / 29 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 30%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | TSV Hartberg 3.33. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 70% | TSV Hartberg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.92 / TSV Hartberg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.163 / def 1.250 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.984 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Wolfsberger AC 2 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 48% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
Record (6 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 2W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 3W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
48%
2.08
22%
4.48
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.39
1.47
TSV Hartberg xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.08
4%
22.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.47 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 16W 11D 14L from 41 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 15L across 41 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.44 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 7W 4D 8L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 6W 6D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.41 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 16W 11D 14L in their last 41 games (1.44 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 14W 12D 15L in their last 41 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.32 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 63%, TSV Hartberg 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Wolfsberger AC and 68% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 63% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 68% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Wolfsberger AC 2-3 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.92 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.47 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.16 / defence 1.25 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 30%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 54%, TSV Hartberg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.44 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.