Wolfsberger AC 5-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 20 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Lavanttal Arena this season.
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Wolfsberger AC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Rapid Vienna's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rapid Vienna in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Wolfsberger AC 1W, Rapid Vienna 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 3–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 53% versus Rapid Vienna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 54% | Rapid Vienna 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.69 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.040 / defence 0.987 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.925 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Data: 44 Wolfsberger AC games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 22%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Rapid Vienna 4.55. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 60% | Rapid Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.69 / Rapid Vienna 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.040 / def 0.987 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.925 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Rapid Vienna xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 5 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 48% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
Record (5 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 1W | Draws 2 | Rapid Vienna 2W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.93x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
48%
2.06
30%
3.37
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.78
1.09
Rapid Vienna xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
4%
24.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.09 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 23W 15D 19L from 57 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 17L across 57 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.44 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 10W 7D 11L from 28 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 8W 11D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.42 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Rapid Vienna in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 15D 19L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 21W 19D 17L in their last 57 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.32 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Rapid Vienna go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 5-1 on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 0-3 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 61%, Rapid Vienna 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Wolfsberger AC) and 36% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna in 32%; Rapid Vienna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 46% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 36% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Rapid Vienna 5-1 at Lavanttal Arena, Championship Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.69 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.09 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 48% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 22%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 54%, Rapid Vienna 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.47 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.