Wolfsberger AC 0-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Austria Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Wolfsberger AC, 1.80 for Austria Vienna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Wolfsberger AC 2W, Austria Vienna 3W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 1–3 with Austria Vienna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 53% versus Austria Vienna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 53% | Austria Vienna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.37 xG and Austria Vienna 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.020 / defence 1.248 | Austria Vienna attack 0.868 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.111. Data: 34 Wolfsberger AC games / 34 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 39% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 32%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Austria Vienna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 80% | Austria Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 39% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.37 / Austria Vienna 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.020 / def 1.248 | Austria Vienna attack 0.868 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Austria Vienna xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 39% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
Record (5 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 2W | Draws 0 | Austria Vienna 3W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (1.02) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (0.87x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.44
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.20
Austria Vienna xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
8%
12.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.20 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 17W 12D 16L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna's form line: 20W 13D 12L from 45 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.62 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 8W 4D 11L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Austria Vienna's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.24 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 17W 12D 16L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 20W 13D 12L in their last 45 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Austria Vienna away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.30 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
1
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 65%, Austria Vienna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Wolfsberger AC) and 35% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC have failed to score in 26% of games; Austria Vienna in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Wolfsberger AC's recent matches and 44% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 35% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 0-1 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.37 xG and Austria Vienna 1.20 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.02 / defence 1.25 against Austria Vienna attack 0.87 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 39% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 32%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 53%, Austria Vienna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.40 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.