Wolfsberger AC 1-2 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt make the trip to Lavanttal Arena to face Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal Arena: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal Arena than their overall form suggests.
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 0.90 for Austria Klagenfurt. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wolfsberger AC lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 54% versus Austria Klagenfurt 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 65% | Austria Klagenfurt 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.61 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.077 / defence 1.018 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.840 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.237. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Wolfsberger AC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Wolfsberger AC games / 22 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Draw 25% | Austria Klagenfurt 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Austria Klagenfurt 4.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Austria Klagenfurt 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Draw 25% | Austria Klagenfurt 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.61 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.077 / def 1.018 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.840 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Austria Klagenfurt xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 2 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 50% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (2 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 1W | Draws 1 | Austria Klagenfurt 0W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (0.84x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.02
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.06
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
5%
19.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.06 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 11W 4D 11L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 7W 10D 9L from 26 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.19 for Austria Klagenfurt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.69 PPG from 13 outings (7W 1D 5L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 3W 4D 6L from 13 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.31 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 4D 11L in their last 26 games (1.42 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 7W 10D 9L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.69 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 4-0 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
3
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 5, Austria Klagenfurt have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Austria Klagenfurt 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Klagenfurt?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 54%, Austria Klagenfurt 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Wolfsberger AC and 62% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 62% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 62% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Klagenfurt defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Championship Round - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.61 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.06 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.84 / defence 1.30, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 50% | Draw 25% | Austria Klagenfurt 25%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Austria Klagenfurt win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 65%, Austria Klagenfurt 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.42 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.