TSV Hartberg 3-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 40%, yet in-form TSV Hartberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PROfertil ARENA plays host to TSV Hartberg versus WSG Wattens in Bundesliga (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
WSG Wattens's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
WSG Wattens's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in TSV Hartberg's favour (1.30 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, TSV Hartberg edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended TSV Hartberg 5–0 WSG Wattens — a TSV Hartberg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 41 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 51% versus WSG Wattens 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 61% | WSG Wattens 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.18 xG and WSG Wattens 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.913 / defence 1.226 | WSG Wattens attack 0.828 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.428. TSV Hartberg's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing WSG Wattens's projected output up. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 31 games and WSG Wattens's last 31.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 27% | Draw 33% | WSG Wattens 40%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.64 | Draw 3.07 | WSG Wattens 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form TSV Hartberg (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though recent form (TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and WSG Wattens's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 40% (last 10 home games) | WSG Wattens 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 10 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 27% | Draw 33% | WSG Wattens 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.18 / WSG Wattens 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.913 / def 1.226 | WSG Wattens attack 0.828 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.45
WSG Wattens xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
TSV Hartberg 3 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens part of?
TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 10) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 27% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.91) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.83x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 31 games and WSG Wattens's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
27%
3.64
33%
3.07
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.63
1.45
WSG Wattens xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
6%
15.52
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.45 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 41 games, going 12W 10D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.05 PPG from 41 outings (11W 10D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.05 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 6W 5D 10L across their last 21 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 21 away games (7W 3D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.32 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens in 61%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs WSG Wattens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 11W 10D 20L in their last 41 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or WSG Wattens away?
WSG Wattens's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.10 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won TSV Hartberg 5-0 WSG Wattens on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 6, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: WSG Wattens 2-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 57%, WSG Wattens 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for TSV Hartberg and 57% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 29% of games; WSG Wattens in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of TSV Hartberg's games and 57% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 57% of WSG Wattens's.
Do TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 71% of WSG Wattens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant TSV Hartberg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat WSG Wattens 3-0 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.18 xG and WSG Wattens 1.45 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.91 / defence 1.23 against WSG Wattens attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 27% | Draw 33% | WSG Wattens 40%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 61%, WSG Wattens 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.12 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.