TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 47%, yet in-form Sturm Graz provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Sturm Graz at Profertil Arena Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 August 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 4D 4L at Profertil Arena Hartberg — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 3W 7D 0L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sturm Graz's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of TSV Hartberg's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against TSV Hartberg's 0 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 2–4 with Sturm Graz winning.
It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus Sturm Graz 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 46% | Sturm Graz 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.38 xG and Sturm Graz 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.953 / defence 0.997 | Sturm Graz attack 1.084 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 0.788. Data: 23 TSV Hartberg games / 23 Sturm Graz games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 47% | Draw 33% | Sturm Graz 21%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Sturm Graz 4.76. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 70% | Sturm Graz 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Profertil Arena Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 47% | Draw 33% | Sturm Graz 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.38 / Sturm Graz 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.953 / def 0.997 | Sturm Graz attack 1.084 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.561 / away 0.788 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Sturm Graz xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Profertil Arena Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Profertil Arena Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 47% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Record (9 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 3 | Sturm Graz 6W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
47%
2.15
33%
3.05
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.23
0.85
Sturm Graz xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
5%
19.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.85 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 10W 12D 11L from 33 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 8L across 33 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 4W 5D 7L from 16 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 9W 4D 3L across 16 trips, a 1.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.58 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 12D 11L in their last 33 games (1.27 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 16W 9D 8L in their last 33 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.06 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.94 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 62%, Sturm Graz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (TSV Hartberg) and 50% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of TSV Hartberg's games and 62% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 50% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 0-2 at Profertil Arena Hartberg, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.38 xG and Sturm Graz 0.85 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Sturm Graz attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 23/23 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 47% | Draw 33% | Sturm Graz 21%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sturm Graz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 46%, Sturm Graz 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.