TSV Hartberg 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Sturm Graz at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 5W 3D 2L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PROfertil ARENA.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.80 (Sturm Graz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Sturm Graz 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 51% versus Sturm Graz 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 60% | Sturm Graz 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.01 xG and Sturm Graz 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.965 / defence 0.915 | Sturm Graz attack 1.201 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.067. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 TSV Hartberg games / 43 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 40%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Sturm Graz 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 40% | Sturm Graz 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.01 / Sturm Graz 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.965 / def 0.915 | Sturm Graz attack 1.201 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sturm Graz xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 31% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Record (1 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
31%
3.19
29%
3.43
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.18
1.17
Sturm Graz xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.17 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 18W 12D 23L from 53 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 33W 12D 8L across 53 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 10W 6D 10L from 26 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 14W 8D 4L across 26 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.75 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 33W 12D 8L in their last 53 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.38 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.92 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 50%, Sturm Graz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (TSV Hartberg) and 46% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 38%; TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of TSV Hartberg's games and 62% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 46% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz finished level at 1-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.01 xG and Sturm Graz 1.17 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.96 / defence 0.92 against Sturm Graz attack 1.20 / defence 0.78, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 40%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 60%, Sturm Graz 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.