TSV Hartberg 2-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as TSV Hartberg take on Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 4D 3L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at PROfertil ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.00 (Rapid Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for TSV Hartberg, 2 for Rapid Vienna and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Rapid Vienna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Rapid Vienna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 58% | Rapid Vienna 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.755 / defence 1.083 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.918 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.205. TSV Hartberg's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 TSV Hartberg games / 42 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 34%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Rapid Vienna 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Rapid Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.12 / Rapid Vienna 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.755 / def 1.083 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.918 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Rapid Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 31% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
Record (5 meetings): TSV Hartberg 3W | Draws 0 | Rapid Vienna 2W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
35%
2.84
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.32
1.20
Rapid Vienna xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.20 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 52 games, going 17W 15D 20L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.46 PPG from 52 outings (19W 19D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.27 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 9W 7D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (8W 11D 7L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.44 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 15D 20L in their last 52 games (1.27 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 19W 19D 14L in their last 52 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.31 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.35 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Rapid Vienna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 58%, Rapid Vienna 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (TSV Hartberg) and 35% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna in 35%; Rapid Vienna in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 46% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 35% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.12 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 58%, Rapid Vienna 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.27 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.