TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Austria Lustenau travel to Stadion Hartberg to take on TSV Hartberg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Hartberg this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have recorded 1W 2D 2L from 5 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Lustenau have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: TSV Hartberg 1.20 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Austria Lustenau in 80% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for TSV Hartberg, 3 for Austria Lustenau and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 4–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 40% and Austria Lustenau 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 40% | Austria Lustenau 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.46 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.800 / defence 1.230 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.882 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. Data: 27 TSV Hartberg games / 5 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 41% | Draw 28% | Austria Lustenau 31%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Austria Lustenau 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Austria Lustenau 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 41% | Draw 28% | Austria Lustenau 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.46 / Austria Lustenau 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.800 / def 1.230 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.882 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Austria Lustenau xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 41% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau?
Record (6 meetings): TSV Hartberg 1W | Draws 2 | Austria Lustenau 3W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Austria Lustenau's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.59
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.72
1.25
Austria Lustenau xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.25 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 2W 0D 3L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.20 PPG, Austria Lustenau on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2023, when Austria Lustenau won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau?
From 6 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Austria Lustenau 0-4 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 40%, Austria Lustenau 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (TSV Hartberg) and 60% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of TSV Hartberg's games and 80% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 60% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.