TSV Hartberg 1-1 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Austria Klagenfurt travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, TSV Hartberg stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, TSV Hartberg have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for TSV Hartberg, 3 for Austria Klagenfurt and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended TSV Hartberg 2–2 Austria Klagenfurt — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 57% versus Austria Klagenfurt 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 59% | Austria Klagenfurt 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: TSV Hartberg surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Austria Klagenfurt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.98 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.968 / defence 0.958 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.767 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.205. Austria Klagenfurt's defence rating of 1.438 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing TSV Hartberg's projected output up. Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 39 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 39.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 61% | Draw 26% | Austria Klagenfurt 14%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.65 | Draw 3.91 | Austria Klagenfurt 7.27. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (61%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 70% (last 10 home games) | Austria Klagenfurt 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 61% | Draw 26% | Austria Klagenfurt 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.98 / Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.968 / def 0.958 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.767 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Austria Klagenfurt xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 1 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 61% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 39 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.91
14%
7.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.87
0.89
Austria Klagenfurt xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
7.27
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
2%
52.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.89 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 17W 13D 19L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 13W 16D 20L from 49 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.31 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, TSV Hartberg have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 24 home games (9W 6D 9L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 6W 6D 12L from their last 24 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.10 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Austria Klagenfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 13D 19L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 13W 16D 20L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.38 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won TSV Hartberg 0-3 Austria Klagenfurt.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
4
Draws
4
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2025: Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 58%, Austria Klagenfurt 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (TSV Hartberg) and 54% (Austria Klagenfurt).
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 38% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 54% of Austria Klagenfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 75% of Austria Klagenfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 18, as TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.98 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.77 / defence 1.44, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 61% | Draw 26% | Austria Klagenfurt 14%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 59%, Austria Klagenfurt 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.31 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.