Sturm Graz 1-3 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host Lask Linz at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 2D 4L at Merkur-Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Merkur-Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sturm Graz at 1.90 PPG versus Lask Linz's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Lask Linz have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sturm Graz and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Lask Linz trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 59% versus Lask Linz 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 61% | Lask Linz 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.02 xG and Lask Linz 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.861 / defence 0.961 | Lask Linz attack 0.809 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.307. Data: 34 Sturm Graz games / 35 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 35% | Draw 31% | Lask Linz 35%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Lask Linz 2.86. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 50% | Lask Linz 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 35% | Draw 31% | Lask Linz 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Sturm Graz 1.02 / Lask Linz 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.861 / def 0.961 | Lask Linz attack 0.809 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Lask Linz xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz 1 - 3 Lask Linz.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz part of?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 35% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sturm Graz and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
Record (7 meetings): Sturm Graz 5W | Draws 1 | Lask Linz 1W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
35%
2.88
31%
3.27
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.03
1.02
Lask Linz xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.02 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz come into this having played 44 games, going 26W 7D 11L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 1.73 PPG from 44 outings (23W 7D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sturm Graz on 1.93 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sturm Graz's home form reads 12W 4D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (10W 2D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.50 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 26W 7D 11L in their last 44 games (1.93 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 23W 7D 14L in their last 44 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Lask Linz away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.90 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
2
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 5, Lask Linz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 57%, Lask Linz 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sturm Graz) and 52% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Lask Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 48% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 52% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sturm Graz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Sturm Graz 1-3 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.02 xG and Lask Linz 1.02 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Lask Linz attack 0.81 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 35% | Draw 31% | Lask Linz 35%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 61%, Lask Linz 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.93 PPG, Lask Linz 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.