SCR Altach 1-2 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SCR Altach face WSG Wattens.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

SCR Altach and WSG Wattens meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 1). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

SCR Altach have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, SCR Altach have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

WSG Wattens (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, WSG Wattens have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for SCR Altach, 0 for WSG Wattens and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 11 May 2024, ended SCR Altach 1–0 WSG Wattens — a SCR Altach win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 44% versus WSG Wattens 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | WSG Wattens 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.44 xG and WSG Wattens 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.944 / defence 0.976 | WSG Wattens attack 0.950 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.192. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 22 games and WSG Wattens's last 22. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 44% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 28%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.29 | Draw 3.54 | WSG Wattens 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 50% (last 10 home games) | WSG Wattens 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (SCR Altach 22 games, WSG Wattens 22) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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