SCR Altach 1-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg meet at Cashpoint-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 6W 3D 1L at Cashpoint-Arena — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint-Arena than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to TSV Hartberg, who have claimed 4 wins from 9 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 5 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 46% versus TSV Hartberg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 40% | TSV Hartberg 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.59 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.144 / defence 0.982 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.886 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.007. Data: 25 SCR Altach games / 25 TSV Hartberg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 54% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 20%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | TSV Hartberg 5.00. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 54% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG SCR Altach 1.59 / TSV Hartberg 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 1.144 / def 0.982 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.886 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.88
TSV Hartberg xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Cashpoint-Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
SCR Altach 1 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg part of?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 54% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
Record (9 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 5 | TSV Hartberg 4W.
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SCR Altach's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.89x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.84
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.47
0.88
TSV Hartberg xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
4%
24.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.88 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 11W 12D 12L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 10W 12D 13L from 35 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.20 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 1.94 PPG from 17 outings (9W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — SCR Altach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 6W 7D 4L from 17 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SCR Altach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 11W 12D 12L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 12D 13L in their last 35 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or TSV Hartberg away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.94 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
5
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when SCR Altach 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
TSV Hartberg see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 59%, TSV Hartberg 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (SCR Altach) and 35% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 41%; TSV Hartberg in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 41% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of SCR Altach's recent games and 35% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat SCR Altach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat SCR Altach 1-2 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.59 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.88 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.89 / defence 0.90, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 54% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 20%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a TSV Hartberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 40%, TSV Hartberg 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.29 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.