SCR Altach 1-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 0W 5D 5L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to TSV Hartberg, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 49% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | TSV Hartberg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.25 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.754 / defence 0.996 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.843 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 39% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 27%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | TSV Hartberg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 60% | TSV Hartberg 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 39% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG SCR Altach 1.25 / TSV Hartberg 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.754 / def 0.996 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.843 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.01
TSV Hartberg xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg part of?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 39% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
Record (5 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 3W.
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.84x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
39%
2.58
35%
2.88
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.26
1.01
TSV Hartberg xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.01 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 10W 20D 27L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 19W 15D 23L from 57 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.26 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.86 PPG from 28 outings (4W 12D 12L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 9W 8D 11L from 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.30 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 10W 20D 27L in their last 57 games (0.88 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 15D 23L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.86 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
5
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when SCR Altach 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 50%, TSV Hartberg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (SCR Altach) and 64% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 57% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of SCR Altach's recent games and 64% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 4, as SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.25 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.01 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.75 / defence 1.00 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 39% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 27%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, TSV Hartberg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.88 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.