SCR Altach 3-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Austria Vienna travel to CASHPOINT Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach at CASHPOINT Arena this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at CASHPOINT Arena this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SCR Altach at 1.30 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Austria Vienna trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 41% versus Austria Vienna 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 53% | Austria Vienna 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.57 xG and Austria Vienna 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.978 / defence 1.157 | Austria Vienna attack 0.899 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.164. Data: 24 SCR Altach games / 24 Austria Vienna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 46% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 29%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Austria Vienna 3.45. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 40% | Austria Vienna 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 46% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG SCR Altach 1.57 / Austria Vienna 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.978 / def 1.157 | Austria Vienna attack 0.899 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Austria Vienna xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
SCR Altach 3 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 46% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.98) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
46%
2.20
25%
3.93
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.79
1.21
Austria Vienna xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.21 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 34 games, going 7W 9D 18L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.38 PPG from 34 outings (11W 14D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 2W 7D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.32 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 7W 9D 18L in their last 34 games (0.88 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 11W 14D 9L in their last 34 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.76 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 47%, Austria Vienna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (SCR Altach) and 41% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 53% of games; Austria Vienna in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 53% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of SCR Altach's recent games and 41% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SCR Altach edge out Austria Vienna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Austria Vienna 3-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.57 xG and Austria Vienna 1.21 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against Austria Vienna attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 46% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 29%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 53%, Austria Vienna 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with SCR Altach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.