SCR Altach 1-2 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 5 as SCR Altach welcome Austria Lustenau to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach's home record at CASHPOINT Arena: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Austria Lustenau — All Games: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W L D W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.00. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Lustenau have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Austria Lustenau's 1.75 PPG return is 0.55 points per game ahead of SCR Altach's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SCR Altach 75% and Austria Lustenau 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SCR Altach 100% | Austria Lustenau 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.77 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.064 / defence 1.229 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.757 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.146. Data: 26 SCR Altach games / 4 Austria Lustenau games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 53% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 22%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Lustenau 4.55. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Lustenau (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 50% | Austria Lustenau 75% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 53% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG SCR Altach 1.77 / Austria Lustenau 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 1.064 / def 1.229 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.757 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Austria Lustenau xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
SCR Altach 1 - 2 Austria Lustenau.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 53% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 1.06x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
53%
1.87
24%
4.15
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.83
1.07
Austria Lustenau xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
4%
26.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.07 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SCR Altach come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Austria Lustenau sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Lustenau carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.75 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Austria Lustenau in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Austria Lustenau won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
2
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
From 8 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when SCR Altach 2-2 Austria Lustenau.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SCR Altach at 75%, Austria Lustenau at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SCR Altach and 50% for Austria Lustenau. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SCR Altach's games and 75% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SCR Altach's matches and 50% of Austria Lustenau's.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Lustenau defy the odds to beat SCR Altach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau beat SCR Altach 1-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.77 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.07 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Austria Lustenau outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.06 / defence 1.23 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.76 / defence 0.98, drawn from 26/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 53% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 22%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Austria Lustenau win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 100%, Austria Lustenau 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Lustenau arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.