Ried vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ried vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Innviertel Arena plays host to Ried versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 29 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ried at Innviertel Arena this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ried are significantly better at Innviertel Arena than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Ried against 1.20 for TSV Hartberg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
TSV Hartberg hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with TSV Hartberg winning.
It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Ried — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 54% versus TSV Hartberg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 49% | TSV Hartberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.01 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.796 / defence 0.982 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.994 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.177. Ried's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Ried games / 27 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 29% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 36%. Fair-value odds: Ried 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | TSV Hartberg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ried 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 29% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Ried 1.01 / TSV Hartberg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.796 / def 0.982 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.994 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.15
TSV Hartberg xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Innviertel Arena.
Where is Ried vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 29% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ried and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
Record (10 meetings): Ried 1W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 7W.
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in?
Ried (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ried's attack rating (0.80) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.99x) against Ried's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
29%
3.47
35%
2.84
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Ried xG
Total xG
2.16
1.15
TSV Hartberg xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ried and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Ried and 1.15 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ried come into this having played 37 games, going 15W 6D 16L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ried, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.30 PPG from 37 outings (12W 12D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Ried against 1.30 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ried's home form reads 11W 2D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.56 points per game from 18 outings (7W 7D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Ried are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 15W 6D 16L in their last 37 games (1.38 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 12D 13L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Ried's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.94 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
TSV Hartberg go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ried
2
Draws
7
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 3-2 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
TSV Hartberg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 44%, TSV Hartberg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ried) and 39% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Ried keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 39%; Ried have failed to score in 28% of games; TSV Hartberg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ried's recent matches and 44% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ried's recent games and 39% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.