Ried 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Red Bull Salzburg travel to josko ARENA to take on Ried. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 September 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ried stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ried's home record at josko ARENA: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ried, 1 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ried in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 67% versus Red Bull Salzburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 44% | Red Bull Salzburg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.01 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.893 / defence 0.946 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.434 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.436. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.434 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Ried games / 29 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 19% | Draw 22% | Red Bull Salzburg 59%. Fair-value odds: Ried 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ried 80% | Red Bull Salzburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 19% | Draw 22% | Red Bull Salzburg 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Ried 1.01 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.893 / def 0.946 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.434 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Red Bull Salzburg xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Ried 0 - 3 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 19% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ried and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (2 meetings): Ried 0W | Draws 1 | Red Bull Salzburg 1W.
What form are Ried and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Ried (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ried's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
19%
5.22
22%
4.61
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Ried xG
Total xG
2.96
1.95
Red Bull Salzburg xG
5.22
19%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
14%
7.01
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
3%
36.61
21%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Ried and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Ried and 1.95 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ried's recent record stands at 9W 15D 15L from 39 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ried, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 31W 5D 3L across 39 games — 2.51 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 1.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ried heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ried have managed 7W 9D 3L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 13W 3D 3L across 19 trips, a 2.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ried are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.44 scored and 0.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 9W 15D 15L in their last 39 games (1.08 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 31W 5D 3L in their last 39 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.58 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Ried or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ried have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when Red Bull Salzburg won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ried's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ried
2
Draws
4
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Ried have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Red Bull Salzburg 4-1 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ried at 79%, Red Bull Salzburg at 53%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ried) and 58% (Red Bull Salzburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Ried's games and 53% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Ried's matches and 58% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do Ried and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Ried 0-3 at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.01 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.95 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ried fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.89 / defence 0.95 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.43 / defence 0.74, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 19% | Draw 22% | Red Bull Salzburg 59%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 44%, Red Bull Salzburg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.