Ried 1-1 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Admira Wacker fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 7 as Ried welcome Admira Wacker to josko ARENA. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 26 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ried stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at josko ARENA, Ried have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Admira Wacker have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Admira Wacker's away record: 2W 7D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Ried) versus 1.30 (Admira Wacker). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ried, 1 for Admira Wacker and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Admira Wacker winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ried trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Admira Wacker trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ried 68% and Admira Wacker 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 57% | Admira Wacker 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.47 xG and Admira Wacker 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.157 / defence 1.259 | Admira Wacker attack 0.889 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.238. Data: 22 Ried games / 22 Admira Wacker games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 39% | Draw 25% | Admira Wacker 36%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Admira Wacker 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ried offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ried 80% | Admira Wacker 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 39% | Draw 25% | Admira Wacker 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Ried 1.47 / Admira Wacker 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.157 / def 1.259 | Admira Wacker attack 0.889 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Ried (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Admira Wacker xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Admira Wacker kick off?
Ried vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 26 April 2022 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs Admira Wacker?
Ried 1 - 1 Admira Wacker.
Where is Ried vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs Admira Wacker part of?
Ried vs Admira Wacker is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 39% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ried and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Admira Wacker?
Record (3 meetings): Ried 2W | Draws 0 | Admira Wacker 1W.
What form are Ried and Admira Wacker in?
Ried (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Admira Wacker (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ried's attack rating (1.16) and Admira Wacker's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Admira Wacker's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
39%
2.53
25%
4.00
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ried xG
Total xG
2.86
1.39
Admira Wacker xG
2.53
39%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
10%
10.13
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ried and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ried and 1.39 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Admira Wacker?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ried come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 9D 11L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Admira Wacker sit at 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (6W 11D 11L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ried on 1.18 PPG, Admira Wacker on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ried's home form reads 6W 6D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Admira Wacker have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (3W 8D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ried are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.18 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Admira Wacker in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Current Season
Admira Wacker
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 6W 11D 11L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Admira Wacker away?
Ried's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.71 PPG; Admira Wacker away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ried's record when hosting Admira Wacker specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ried
1
Draws
1
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Admira Wacker?
From 4 meetings on record, Ried have won 2, Admira Wacker have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2022, when Ried 1-1 Admira Wacker.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Admira Wacker?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ried at 79%, Admira Wacker at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Ried and 57% for Admira Wacker. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Admira Wacker?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Ried's games and 71% of Admira Wacker's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ried's matches and 57% of Admira Wacker's.
Do Ried and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ried and Admira Wacker share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at josko ARENA, Relegation Round - 7, as Ried and Admira Wacker drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.47 xG and Admira Wacker 1.39 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 1.16 / defence 1.26 against Admira Wacker attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 39% | Draw 25% | Admira Wacker 36%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 57%, Admira Wacker 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.18 PPG, Admira Wacker 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.