Rapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Rapid Vienna (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Rapid Vienna are significantly better at Allianz Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sturm Graz have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Rapid Vienna, 4 for Sturm Graz and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 53% versus Sturm Graz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 44% | Sturm Graz 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.92 xG and Sturm Graz 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.551 / defence 0.805 | Sturm Graz attack 1.071 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.092. Rapid Vienna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.551 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 25 Rapid Vienna games / 26 Sturm Graz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 58% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 15%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Sturm Graz 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Rapid Vienna 10% | Sturm Graz 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 58% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.92 / Sturm Graz 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.551 / def 0.805 | Sturm Graz attack 1.071 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sturm Graz xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Rapid Vienna 3 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 58% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Record (9 meetings): Rapid Vienna 4W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 4W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.55x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.07x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
The sample (25/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
58%
1.74
27%
3.72
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.86
0.94
Sturm Graz xG
1.74
58%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
2%
43.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.94 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 15W 8D 13L from 36 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 8L across 36 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.78 for Sturm Graz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 9W 2D 7L from 18 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 11W 4D 3L across 18 trips, a 2.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.56 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 15W 8D 13L in their last 36 games (1.47 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 18W 10D 8L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.61 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 5, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Rapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 39%, Sturm Graz 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rapid Vienna) and 44% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 39%; Rapid Vienna have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Sturm Graz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 56% of Sturm Graz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 44% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sturm Graz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Sturm Graz 3-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.92 xG and Sturm Graz 0.94 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.55 / defence 0.81 against Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 25/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 58% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 15%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 44%, Sturm Graz 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.47 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.