Rapid Vienna 0-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs FC BW Linz encounter.

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Match Analysis

Rapid Vienna host FC BW Linz at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 1 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 5D 0L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Rapid Vienna have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC BW Linz stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC BW Linz away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Rapid Vienna have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Rapid Vienna, 1 for FC BW Linz and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Rapid Vienna 0–3 FC BW Linz — a FC BW Linz win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Rapid Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

FC BW Linz in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 46% versus FC BW Linz 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 35% | FC BW Linz 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 2.02 xG and FC BW Linz 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.086 / defence 0.857 | FC BW Linz attack 1.000 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.105. Data: built from Rapid Vienna's last 36 games and FC BW Linz's last 36.

Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 61% | Draw 23% | FC BW Linz 16%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.63 | Draw 4.44 | FC BW Linz 6.20. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rapid Vienna's last 10 home games and FC BW Linz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rapid Vienna 50% (last 10 home games) | FC BW Linz 70% (last 10 away games).

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