Rapid Vienna 0-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rapid Vienna's home record at Allianz Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Austria Vienna (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Austria Vienna's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Rapid Vienna, 3 for Austria Vienna and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 56% versus Austria Vienna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 48% | Austria Vienna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.25 xG and Austria Vienna 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.987 / defence 0.898 | Austria Vienna attack 1.187 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Rapid Vienna games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 36% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 35%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Austria Vienna 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 50% | Austria Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 31 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 36% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.25 / Austria Vienna 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.987 / def 0.898 | Austria Vienna attack 1.187 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Austria Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Rapid Vienna 0 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna is a Championship Group - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 36% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna?
Record (9 meetings): Rapid Vienna 4W | Draws 2 | Austria Vienna 3W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 0.99x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.19x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
36%
2.75
29%
3.50
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.47
1.22
Austria Vienna xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
10%
9.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.22 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 62 games, going 24W 15D 23L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.68 PPG from 62 outings (31W 11D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.68 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 17W 4D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.61 points per game from 31 outings (15W 5D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.45 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
Austria Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 24W 15D 23L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 31W 11D 20L in their last 62 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Austria Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.77 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 Austria Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 42%, Austria Vienna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Rapid Vienna) and 48% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Rapid Vienna have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 58% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 48% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Rapid Vienna 0-2 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Group - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.25 xG and Austria Vienna 1.22 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rapid Vienna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Austria Vienna attack 1.19 / defence 0.94, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 36% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 35%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 48%, Austria Vienna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.40 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.