Lask Linz 6-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Raiffeisen Arena plays host to Lask Linz versus WSG Wattens in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 13 March 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Lask Linz (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz at Raiffeisen Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.10 for WSG Wattens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 54% versus WSG Wattens 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 46% | WSG Wattens 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.39 xG and WSG Wattens 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.832 / defence 1.033 | WSG Wattens attack 0.857 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.235. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing Lask Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Lask Linz games / 22 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 29%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | WSG Wattens 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lask Linz 40% | WSG Wattens 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Lask Linz 1.39 / WSG Wattens 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.832 / def 1.033 | WSG Wattens attack 0.857 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.09
WSG Wattens xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Lask Linz 6 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens part of?
Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 44% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lask Linz and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and WSG Wattens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and WSG Wattens in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lask Linz's attack rating (0.83) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.86x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.74
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.49
1.09
WSG Wattens xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.09 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lask Linz come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 7D 9L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (5W 8D 9L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.05 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Lask Linz's home form reads 3W 4D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Lask Linz are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.36 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 5W 8D 9L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or WSG Wattens away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.18 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: WSG Wattens won 1-4 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Lask Linz
1
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 7, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Lask Linz 1-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and WSG Wattens?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 46%, WSG Wattens 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Lask Linz) and 73% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz have failed to score in 36% of games; WSG Wattens in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 46% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Lask Linz's recent games and 73% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lask Linz run riot with a 6-0 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat WSG Wattens 6-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.39 xG and WSG Wattens 1.09 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against WSG Wattens attack 0.86 / defence 1.46, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 44% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 29%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 46%, WSG Wattens 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.14 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.