Lask Linz 0-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 March 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Lask Linz, 1.70 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, Lask Linz are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 4 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Lask Linz a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 53% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 56% | TSV Hartberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.29 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.151 / defence 1.171 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.965 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Lask Linz games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 36% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 36%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | TSV Hartberg 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lask Linz 50% | TSV Hartberg 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 23 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 36% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Lask Linz 1.29 / TSV Hartberg 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.151 / def 1.171 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.965 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.30
TSV Hartberg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz 0 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Championship Group - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 36% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (8 meetings): Lask Linz 4W | Draws 4 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.15x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.96x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
36%
2.78
28%
3.58
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.59
1.30
TSV Hartberg xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.30 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz come into this having played 55 games, going 28W 10D 17L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.40 PPG from 55 outings (19W 20D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.40 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lask Linz's home form reads 16W 5D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.36 points per game from 28 outings (9W 11D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.25 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 28W 10D 17L in their last 55 games (1.71 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 20D 16L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.89 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
5
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 46%, TSV Hartberg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lask Linz) and 46% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 36%; TSV Hartberg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 46% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lask Linz's recent games and 46% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lask Linz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Group - 23, as Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.29 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.30 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 1.3 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.15 / defence 1.17 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 36% | Draw 28% | TSV Hartberg 36%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 56%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.71 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.