Lask Linz 1-0 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Raiffeisen Arena plays host to Lask Linz versus Ried in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lask Linz have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Ried's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Lask Linz, 1.10 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lask Linz lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Ried winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Ried — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 62% and Ried 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 44% | Ried 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.68 xG and Ried 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.859 / defence 1.079 | Ried attack 0.771 / defence 1.647. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.318. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.647 — this is suppressing Lask Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Lask Linz games / 16 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 51% | Draw 25% | Ried 24%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Ried 4.17. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lask Linz are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 50% | Ried 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 51% | Draw 25% | Ried 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Lask Linz 1.68 / Ried 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.859 / def 1.079 | Ried attack 0.771 / def 1.647 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ried xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Ried kick off?
Lask Linz vs Ried kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Ried?
Lask Linz 1 - 0 Ried.
Where is Lask Linz vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Ried part of?
Lask Linz vs Ried is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 51% chance of winning, Ried a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lask Linz and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Ried?
Record (1 meetings): Lask Linz 0W | Draws 0 | Ried 1W.
What form are Lask Linz and Ried in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Ried (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.86x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.77x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.02
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.78
1.10
Ried xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
5%
21.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.10 for Ried, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz's recent record stands at 3W 5D 8L from 16 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 5L across 16 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ried by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lask Linz heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lask Linz have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.38 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Ried in 75%.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Ried in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 3W 5D 8L in their last 16 games (0.88 PPG), while Ried have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Ried away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.00 PPG; Ried away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lask Linz
4
Draws
3
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Ried?
From 8 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 1, Ried have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ried 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 50%, Ried 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lask Linz) and 62% (Ried).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lask Linz's games and 75% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lask Linz's recent games and 62% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Ried tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Ried in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out Ried 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Ried 1-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.68 xG and Ried 1.10 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ried landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.86 / defence 1.08 against Ried attack 0.77 / defence 1.65, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 51% | Draw 25% | Ried 24%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 44%, Ried 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Ried's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ried arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Lask Linz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.