Lask Linz 2-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Lask Linz take on Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Rapid Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Raiffeisen Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lask Linz 1.50 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lask Linz register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Rapid Vienna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Lask Linz have won 1, Rapid Vienna 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 52% versus Rapid Vienna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 48% | Rapid Vienna 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.21 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.901 / defence 1.082 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.934 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.197. Data: 40 Lask Linz games / 40 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 33% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 33%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Rapid Vienna 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 70% | Rapid Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 33% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Lask Linz 1.21 / Rapid Vienna 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.901 / def 1.082 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.934 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Rapid Vienna xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz 2 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 33% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Record (3 meetings): Lask Linz 1W | Draws 2 | Rapid Vienna 0W.
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lask Linz's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
35%
2.88
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.42
1.21
Rapid Vienna xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.21 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 20W 14D 16L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 18W 19D 13L from 50 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.48 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.56 PPG from 25 outings (11W 6D 8L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 8W 11D 6L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.38 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 20W 14D 16L in their last 50 games (1.48 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 18W 19D 13L in their last 50 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.56 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 6, Rapid Vienna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 48%, Rapid Vienna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lask Linz) and 32% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rapid Vienna in 36%; Rapid Vienna in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 44% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lask Linz's recent games and 32% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lask Linz defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.21 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.21 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 33% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 48%, Rapid Vienna 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.48 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.