Grazer AK 0-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
WSG Wattens make the trip to Merkur Arena to face Grazer AK in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Grazer AK have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 1W 4D 5L at Merkur Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Grazer AK, 0.70 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, WSG Wattens in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Grazer AK lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Grazer AK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 73% versus WSG Wattens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 68% | WSG Wattens 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.18 xG and WSG Wattens 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.730 / defence 1.257 | WSG Wattens attack 0.993 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.199. Grazer AK's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Grazer AK games / 44 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 27% | Draw 31% | WSG Wattens 42%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | WSG Wattens 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, WSG Wattens are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 70% | WSG Wattens 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 27% | Draw 31% | WSG Wattens 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Grazer AK 1.18 / WSG Wattens 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.730 / def 1.257 | WSG Wattens attack 0.993 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.50
WSG Wattens xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Grazer AK 0 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens part of?
Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 27% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Grazer AK and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and WSG Wattens?
Record (2 meetings): Grazer AK 1W | Draws 1 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Grazer AK and WSG Wattens in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Grazer AK's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.99x) against Grazer AK's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
27%
3.72
31%
3.18
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.67
1.50
WSG Wattens xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
6%
16.60
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.50 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 3W 7D 12L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
WSG Wattens's form line: 4W 7D 11L from 22 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.73 PPG for Grazer AK against 0.86 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 0.64 PPG from 11 outings (1W 4D 6L).
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 1D 7L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grazer AK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 0.91 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 3W 7D 12L in their last 22 games (0.73 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 4W 7D 11L in their last 22 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or WSG Wattens away?
WSG Wattens's away record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 0.64 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Grazer AK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grazer AK won 1-5 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grazer AK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Grazer AK
4
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and WSG Wattens?
From 8 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 3, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Grazer AK 4-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and WSG Wattens?
Grazer AK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Grazer AK, 64% for WSG Wattens — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Grazer AK and 73% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grazer AK have failed to score in 27% of games; WSG Wattens in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Grazer AK's games and 64% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Grazer AK's matches and 73% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Grazer AK and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grazer AK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK and WSG Wattens finished level at 0-0 at Merkur Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.18 xG and WSG Wattens 1.50 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grazer AK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. WSG Wattens landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.73 / defence 1.26 against WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 27% | Draw 31% | WSG Wattens 42%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 68%, WSG Wattens 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.73 PPG, WSG Wattens 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.