Grazer AK 2-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grazer AK at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grazer AK host Wolfsberger AC at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Grazer AK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 3W 4D 3L at Merkur-Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Grazer AK have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Wolfsberger AC, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Grazer AK.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 5.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Wolfsberger AC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 5.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Grazer AK in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 63% and Wolfsberger AC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 56% | Wolfsberger AC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.79 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.056 / defence 1.047 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.927 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Grazer AK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Grazer AK games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 53% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 23%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Wolfsberger AC 4.35. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Wolfsberger AC lead the H2H ledger, but Grazer AK carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grazer AK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 80% | Wolfsberger AC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 23 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 53% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Grazer AK 1.79 / Wolfsberger AC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 1.056 / def 1.047 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.927 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Wolfsberger AC xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Grazer AK 2 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC is a Relegation Group - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 53% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (4 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 3W.
What form are Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grazer AK's attack rating (1.06) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.08
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.91
1.11
Wolfsberger AC xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
4%
26.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.11 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 9W 21D 24L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 23W 12D 19L from 54 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wolfsberger AC are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grazer AK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 1.07 PPG from 27 outings (6W 11D 10L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 6D 10L from 27 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Grazer AK are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.69 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Wolfsberger AC in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 9W 21D 24L in their last 54 games (0.89 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 12D 19L in their last 54 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.07 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Grazer AK's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Grazer AK
2
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC?
From 7 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 1, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Grazer AK 0-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 67%, Wolfsberger AC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Grazer AK) and 59% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grazer AK have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Grazer AK's games and 63% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Grazer AK's matches and 59% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grazer AK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK beat Wolfsberger AC 2-0 at Merkur-Arena, Relegation Group - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.79 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.93 / defence 1.26, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 53% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 23%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 56%, Wolfsberger AC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Grazer AK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.