Grazer AK 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Red Bull Salzburg (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Grazer AK face Red Bull Salzburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grazer AK host Red Bull Salzburg at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Grazer AK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK at Merkur-Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Red Bull Salzburg stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Red Bull Salzburg — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Grazer AK, 2 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 0–5 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 64% and Red Bull Salzburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 58% | Red Bull Salzburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.22 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.058 / defence 1.106 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.139 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.208. Data: 40 Grazer AK games / 40 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 31% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 44%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 70% | Red Bull Salzburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 31% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Grazer AK 1.22 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 1.058 / def 1.106 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.139 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Red Bull Salzburg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Grazer AK 1 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 31% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (3 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 1 | Red Bull Salzburg 2W.
What form are Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grazer AK's attack at 1.06x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
31%
3.28
25%
3.96
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.74
1.52
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
7%
15.00
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.52 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grazer AK come into this having played 50 games, going 8W 20D 22L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 1.78 PPG from 50 outings (25W 14D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Grazer AK's home form reads 5W 10D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (10W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grazer AK are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.78 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Red Bull Salzburg in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 8W 20D 22L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 25W 14D 11L in their last 50 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.04 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Grazer AK or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grazer AK have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2025, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grazer AK's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Grazer AK
2
Draws
2
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 4 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Grazer AK 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 62%, Red Bull Salzburg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Grazer AK) and 50% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 33%; Grazer AK have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Grazer AK's games and 58% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Grazer AK's recent games and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg finished level at 1-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.22 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.52 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.14 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 31% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 44%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 58%, Red Bull Salzburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.