Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Austria Vienna haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

TSV Hartberg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. TSV Hartberg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 0.90 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Austria Vienna have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while TSV Hartberg have managed just 3 wins.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Austria Vienna winning.

The historical record gives Austria Vienna a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Austria Vienna trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

TSV Hartberg trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 59% versus TSV Hartberg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 59% | TSV Hartberg 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.44 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.007 / defence 1.014 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.030. Data: 22 Austria Vienna games / 22 TSV Hartberg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 26%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 3.85. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Austria Vienna 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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