Austria Vienna 2-2 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Vienna host SCR Altach at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 April 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Vienna — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Austria Vienna have won 2, SCR Altach 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 53% versus SCR Altach 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 60% | SCR Altach 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.57 xG and SCR Altach 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.090 / defence 0.830 | SCR Altach attack 0.922 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 55% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 17%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 30% | SCR Altach 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 55% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Austria Vienna 1.57 / SCR Altach 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.090 / def 0.830 | SCR Altach attack 0.922 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.78
SCR Altach xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach kick off?
Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 26 April 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Austria Vienna 2 - 2 SCR Altach.
Where is Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach part of?
Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 55% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Austria Vienna and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and SCR Altach?
Record (5 meetings): Austria Vienna 2W | Draws 1 | SCR Altach 2W.
What form are Austria Vienna and SCR Altach in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Austria Vienna's attack at 1.09x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
55%
1.81
28%
3.61
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.35
0.78
SCR Altach xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
4%
28.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.78 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 23W 19D 18L from 60 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 11W 21D 28L across 60 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Austria Vienna by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 14W 10D 6L from 30 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 5W 10D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.85 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Current Season
SCR Altach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 23W 19D 18L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 11W 21D 28L in their last 60 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or SCR Altach away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.73 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Vienna and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Vienna
3
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 4, SCR Altach have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and SCR Altach?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 47%, SCR Altach 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Austria Vienna) and 53% (SCR Altach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 27% of games; SCR Altach in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 47% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Austria Vienna's matches and 53% of SCR Altach's.
Do Austria Vienna and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna and SCR Altach share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna and SCR Altach finished level at 2-2 at Generali Arena, Relegation Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.57 xG and SCR Altach 0.78 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against SCR Altach attack 0.92 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 55% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 17%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 60%, SCR Altach 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
SCR Altach's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.