Austria Vienna 5-0 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - Final. Kick-off: Sunday 11 June 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Vienna have posted 5W 2D 3L at Generali Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Austria Vienna are significantly better at Generali Arena than their overall form suggests.
Austria Lustenau (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Austria Lustenau away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Austria Lustenau arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Austria Vienna, 1 for Austria Lustenau and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 74% and Austria Lustenau 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Vienna 76% | Austria Lustenau 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.84 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.161 / defence 0.866 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.738 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.340. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 22 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 61% | Draw 22% | Austria Lustenau 17%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Austria Lustenau 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Lustenau (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Austria Vienna 70% | Austria Lustenau 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - Final | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 61% | Draw 22% | Austria Lustenau 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG Austria Vienna 1.84 / Austria Lustenau 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.161 / def 0.866 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.738 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Austria Lustenau xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Austria Vienna 5 - 0 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau is a Conference League Play-offs - Final fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 61% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
Record (3 meetings): Austria Vienna 0W | Draws 2 | Austria Lustenau 1W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.16) and Austria Lustenau's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.74x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.47
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.70
0.86
Austria Lustenau xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
3%
37.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.86 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 12W 11D 11L from 34 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Austria Lustenau, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 11L across 34 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.38 for Austria Lustenau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 8W 4D 5L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Lustenau's away record stands at 5W 6D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.56 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Austria Lustenau in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Current Season
Austria Lustenau
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 12W 11D 11L in their last 34 games (1.38 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 12W 11D 11L in their last 34 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.65 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Austria Vienna won 5-0 on 11 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Austria Vienna
3
Draws
2
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 3, Austria Lustenau have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Austria Lustenau 2-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 71%, Austria Lustenau 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Austria Vienna and 47% for Austria Lustenau. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Austria Vienna's games and 59% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Austria Vienna's matches and 47% of Austria Lustenau's.
Do Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Vienna run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Austria Lustenau 5-0 at Generali Arena, Conference League Play-offs - Final, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.84 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.86 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Austria Vienna beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Lustenau landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.16 / defence 0.87 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 61% | Draw 22% | Austria Lustenau 17%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 76%, Austria Lustenau 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.38 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.