Austria Lustenau 0-3 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Lustenau at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Austria Lustenau welcome SCR Altach to Planet Pure Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Lustenau stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Austria Lustenau have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Lustenau's home record at Planet Pure Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Austria Lustenau) versus 1.00 (SCR Altach). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Austria Lustenau: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for SCR Altach, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Austria Lustenau a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Austria Lustenau trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SCR Altach trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 58% versus SCR Altach 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 56% | SCR Altach 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.29 xG and SCR Altach 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.797 / defence 1.005 | SCR Altach attack 0.790 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.392. Austria Lustenau's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Austria Lustenau's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Austria Lustenau games / 26 SCR Altach games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 38% | Draw 33% | SCR Altach 29%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | SCR Altach 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Lustenau are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Austria Lustenau 60% | SCR Altach 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 38% | Draw 33% | SCR Altach 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.29 / SCR Altach 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.797 / def 1.005 | SCR Altach attack 0.790 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.10
SCR Altach xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Austria Lustenau 0 - 3 SCR Altach.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach part of?
Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 38% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach?
Record (4 meetings): Austria Lustenau 3W | Draws 1 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Lustenau's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
38%
2.64
33%
3.00
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.39
1.10
SCR Altach xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.10 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 12D 13L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.89 PPG from 36 outings (7W 11D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 1.25 PPG, SCR Altach on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 6W 5D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 0.83 points per game from 18 outings (3W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Lustenau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.86 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
SCR Altach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 12D 13L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 7W 11D 18L in their last 36 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or SCR Altach away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.28 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Austria Lustenau won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
2
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, SCR Altach have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when SCR Altach 2-2 Austria Lustenau.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 56%, SCR Altach 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Austria Lustenau) and 61% (SCR Altach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 28% of games; SCR Altach in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 50% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 61% of SCR Altach's.
Do Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SCR Altach run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Austria Lustenau 0-3 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.29 xG and SCR Altach 1.10 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Austria Lustenau fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SCR Altach outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.80 / defence 1.00 against SCR Altach attack 0.79 / defence 1.28, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 38% | Draw 33% | SCR Altach 29%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 56%, SCR Altach 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SCR Altach's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.25 PPG, SCR Altach 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.