Austria Klagenfurt 1-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Austria Klagenfurt welcome Ried to Wörthersee Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 4W 5D 1L at Wörthersee Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ried — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Austria Klagenfurt) versus 1.40 (Ried). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Austria Klagenfurt, 0 for Ried and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Austria Klagenfurt trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ried trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 65% and Ried 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 55% | Ried 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.67 xG and Ried 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.991 / defence 1.099 | Ried attack 0.711 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.382. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Austria Klagenfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Austria Klagenfurt games / 20 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 24%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Ried 4.17. Austria Klagenfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 70% | Ried 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.67 / Ried 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.991 / def 1.099 | Ried attack 0.711 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Ried xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried?
Austria Klagenfurt 1 - 1 Ried.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 50% chance of winning, Ried a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Ried?
Record (1 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 0W | Draws 1 | Ried 0W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Ried in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating (0.99) and Ried's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Austria Klagenfurt's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.86
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.75
1.08
Ried xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
4%
22.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.08 for Ried, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Klagenfurt come into this having played 20 games, going 7W 8D 5L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ried sit at 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Klagenfurt on 1.45 PPG, Ried on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Austria Klagenfurt's home form reads 4W 5D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Ried have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Klagenfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.40 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Ried in 75%.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Ried in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 7W 8D 5L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Ried have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Ried away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.70 PPG; Ried away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Austria Klagenfurt's record when hosting Ried specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Austria Klagenfurt
3
Draws
0
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Ried?
From 4 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, Ried have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2022, when Ried 2-2 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Ried?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Austria Klagenfurt at 70%, Ried at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 60% (Ried). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ried in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 70% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 60% of Ried's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Ried tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Ried in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Klagenfurt and Ried share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt and Ried finished level at 1-1 at Wörthersee Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.67 xG and Ried 1.08 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.99 / defence 1.10 against Ried attack 0.71 / defence 1.42, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 50% | Draw 26% | Ried 24%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 55%, Ried 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.45 PPG, Ried 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ried (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.