Austria Klagenfurt 0-0 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna meet at Wörthersee Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Klagenfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wörthersee Stadion, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 2W 4D 0L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Vienna (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Austria Klagenfurt half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Austria Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 79% and Austria Vienna 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 57% | Austria Vienna 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.49 xG and Austria Vienna 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.099 / defence 1.325 | Austria Vienna attack 0.896 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.354. Data: 14 Austria Klagenfurt games / 14 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 35% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 40%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Vienna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 100% | Austria Vienna 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 35% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.49 / Austria Vienna 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.099 / def 1.325 | Austria Vienna attack 0.896 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Austria Vienna xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna?
Austria Klagenfurt 0 - 0 Austria Vienna.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 35% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Klagenfurt's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (0.90x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
35%
2.89
26%
3.87
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
3.10
1.61
Austria Vienna xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
7%
14.41
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.61 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 4W 6D 4L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna's form line: 3W 7D 4L from 14 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Austria Klagenfurt against 1.14 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (2W 4D 0L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.36 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 3W 7D 4L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.67 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Austria Vienna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Klagenfurt
5
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Austria Vienna 2-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Austria Klagenfurt, 50% for Austria Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 33% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 50% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 33% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Austria Klagenfurt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna finished level at 0-0 at Wörthersee Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.49 xG and Austria Vienna 1.61 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Austria Vienna landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.10 / defence 1.32 against Austria Vienna attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 35% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 40%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 57%, Austria Vienna 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.29 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.