Austria Klagenfurt 2-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna meet at 28 Black Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Klagenfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 28 Black Arena, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Vienna (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Austria Klagenfurt 1W, Austria Vienna 2W, 4D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Austria Klagenfurt half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Austria Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Klagenfurt 58% versus Austria Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 65% | Austria Vienna 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 0.99 xG and Austria Vienna 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.892 / defence 1.118 | Austria Vienna attack 0.860 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.172. Data: 38 Austria Klagenfurt games / 38 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 32% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 39%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Austria Vienna 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Austria Klagenfurt 70% | Austria Vienna 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 32% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 0.99 / Austria Vienna 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.892 / def 1.118 | Austria Vienna attack 0.860 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Austria Vienna xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna?
Austria Klagenfurt 2 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 32% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna?
Record (7 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 1W | Draws 4 | Austria Vienna 2W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Klagenfurt's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (0.86x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
32%
3.16
30%
3.36
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.12
1.13
Austria Vienna xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.6 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.13 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 17W 12D 19L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna's form line: 17W 15D 16L from 48 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Austria Klagenfurt against 1.38 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.17 PPG from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 7W 7D 10L from 24 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.54 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 17W 12D 19L in their last 48 games (1.31 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 17W 15D 16L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Klagenfurt's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.17 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Austria Klagenfurt or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Klagenfurt have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Austria Vienna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Klagenfurt
5
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Austria Vienna 2-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 50%, Austria Vienna 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 58% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 62% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 58% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 28 Black Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Austria Klagenfurt and Austria Vienna drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 0.99 xG and Austria Vienna 1.13 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.89 / defence 1.12 against Austria Vienna attack 0.86 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 32% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 39%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 65%, Austria Vienna 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.31 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.