Sharjah FC 3-0 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Sharjah FC welcome Baniyas SC to Sharjah Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 3W 0D 2L at Sharjah Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Baniyas SC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Baniyas SC have posted 1W 2D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Sharjah FC) versus 1.20 (Baniyas SC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 50% versus Baniyas SC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 70% | Baniyas SC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.16 xG and Baniyas SC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.859 / defence 1.354 | Baniyas SC attack 0.821 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.278. Data: 10 Sharjah FC games / 10 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 28% | Draw 32% | Baniyas SC 40%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Baniyas SC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baniyas SC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 40% | Baniyas SC 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 28% | Draw 32% | Baniyas SC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Sharjah FC 1.16 / Baniyas SC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.859 / def 1.354 | Baniyas SC attack 0.821 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Baniyas SC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Sharjah FC 3 - 0 Baniyas SC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 28% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (0.86) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
28%
3.60
32%
3.10
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.58
1.42
Baniyas SC xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
7%
14.90
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.42 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 5W 1D 4L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Baniyas SC away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 7, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Baniyas SC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 50%, Baniyas SC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sharjah FC and 50% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sharjah FC's games and 75% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sharjah FC's matches and 50% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Sharjah FC and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Baniyas SC 3-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.16 xG and Baniyas SC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baniyas SC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.35 against Baniyas SC attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 28% | Draw 32% | Baniyas SC 40%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 70%, Baniyas SC 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.