Sharjah FC 0-2 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Sharjah Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sharjah FC 1.40 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Sharjah FC, 3 for Al Wahda FC and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sharjah FC in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 50% versus Al Wahda FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 56% | Al Wahda FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.43 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.099 / defence 1.148 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.946 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.382. Data: 48 Sharjah FC games / 48 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 36% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Al Wahda FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 60% | Al Wahda FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 36% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Sharjah FC 1.43 / Al Wahda FC 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.099 / def 1.148 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.946 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al Wahda FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 23 April 2026 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Sharjah FC 0 - 2 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 36% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
Record (9 meetings): Sharjah FC 3W | Draws 3 | Al Wahda FC 3W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Al Wahda FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
36%
2.78
25%
4.02
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.93
1.50
Al Wahda FC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.47
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.50 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 23W 7D 18L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 22W 18D 8L from 48 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 1.58 PPG, Al Wahda FC on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.74 PPG from 23 outings (13W 1D 9L).
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 9W 9D 5L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.75 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 23W 7D 18L in their last 48 games (1.58 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 22W 18D 8L in their last 48 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.74 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2021, when Al Wahda FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
3
Draws
4
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Sharjah FC 0-2 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 39%, Al Wahda FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sharjah FC) and 39% (Al Wahda FC).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 39%; Sharjah FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Al Wahda FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Wahda FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 48% of Al Wahda FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 39% of Al Wahda FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sharjah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Sharjah FC 0-2 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.43 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.50 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sharjah FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 36% | Draw 25% | Al Wahda FC 39%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 56%, Al Wahda FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.58 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wahda FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.