Sharjah FC 0-2 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sharjah Stadium plays host to Sharjah FC versus Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Wednesday 14 January 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Sharjah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 3W 1D 6L at Sharjah Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Bataeh (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Sharjah FC 3W, Al Bataeh 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Al Bataeh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 43% versus Al Bataeh 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 51% | Al Bataeh 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.20 xG and Al Bataeh 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.904 / defence 1.110 | Al Bataeh attack 0.969 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.376. Data: 37 Sharjah FC games / 37 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 31% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 44%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Al Bataeh 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Bataeh as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Bataeh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sharjah FC 30% | Al Bataeh 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Jan 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 31% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Sharjah FC 1.20 / Al Bataeh 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.904 / def 1.110 | Al Bataeh attack 0.969 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al Bataeh xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 15:45 on Wednesday 14 January 2026 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Sharjah FC 0 - 2 Al Bataeh.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 31% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh?
Record (6 meetings): Sharjah FC 3W | Draws 2 | Al Bataeh 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 0.90x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.97x) against Sharjah FC's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
31%
3.25
26%
3.90
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.48
Al Bataeh xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
7%
14.27
13%
7.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.48 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 19W 5D 13L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Bataeh's form line: 9W 6D 22L from 37 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Bataeh.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (10W 1D 6L).
On the road, Al Bataeh have gone 6W 2D 9L from 17 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.08 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 19W 5D 13L in their last 37 games (1.68 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 9W 6D 22L in their last 37 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 18 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
3
Draws
2
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 3, Al Bataeh have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al Bataeh 0-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 24%, Al Bataeh 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sharjah FC) and 53% (Al Bataeh).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Sharjah FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Bataeh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 59% of Al Bataeh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 53% of Al Bataeh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Bataeh cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sharjah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Sharjah FC 0-2 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.20 xG and Al Bataeh 1.48 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sharjah FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Al Bataeh attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 31% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 44%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 51%, Al Bataeh 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Al Bataeh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.