Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-2 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Baniyas SC to Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 December 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record at Rashid Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Rashid Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baniyas SC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Baniyas SC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 1 for Baniyas SC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 3–1 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Baniyas SC trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% versus Baniyas SC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 54% | Baniyas SC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.78 xG and Baniyas SC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.094 / defence 0.767 | Baniyas SC attack 1.026 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.468. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 37 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 25%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Baniyas SC 4.00. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 60% | Baniyas SC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Dec 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.78 / Baniyas SC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.094 / def 0.767 | Baniyas SC attack 1.026 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Baniyas SC xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 25 December 2022 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 - 2 Baniyas SC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 52% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
Record (2 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1W | Draws 0 | Baniyas SC 1W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.09) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.30
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.94
1.16
Baniyas SC xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
4%
24.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.16 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 20W 7D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baniyas SC's form line: 11W 10D 16L from 37 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 2.11 PPG from 18 outings (12W 2D 4L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.32 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 20W 7D 10L in their last 37 games (1.81 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 11W 10D 16L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Baniyas SC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.11 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 72%, Baniyas SC at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 67% for Baniyas SC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Baniyas SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 61% of Baniyas SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 67% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baniyas SC defy the odds to beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-2 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.78 xG and Baniyas SC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Baniyas SC outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.09 / defence 0.77 against Baniyas SC attack 1.03 / defence 1.15, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 25%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Baniyas SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 54%, Baniyas SC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Baniyas SC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.