Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Al-Jazira to Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.83 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 0.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have recorded 4W 1D 1L from 6 outings — 2.17 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.83. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.83 PPG (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) versus 2.17 (Al-Jazira). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Jazira trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% versus Al-Jazira 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 17% | Al-Jazira 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 xG and Al-Jazira 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.255 / defence 1.242 | Al-Jazira attack 0.716 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.273. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 6 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 6 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% | Draw 31% | Al-Jazira 26%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Jazira 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% | Al-Jazira 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% | Draw 31% | Al-Jazira 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 / Al-Jazira 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.255 / def 1.242 | Al-Jazira attack 0.716 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al-Jazira xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 43% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.83 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.25) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.27
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.64
1.13
Al-Jazira xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
6%
17.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.13 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 3W 2D 1L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Jazira's form line: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games, 2.17 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 1.83 PPG, Al-Jazira on 2.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.50 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Al-Jazira in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
1
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 8, Al-Jazira have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al-Jazira?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Al-Jazira see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33%, Al-Jazira 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 50% for Al-Jazira.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Jazira in 50%; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al-Jazira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 50% of Al-Jazira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 50% of Al-Jazira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al-Jazira 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Jazira 2-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.51 xG and Al-Jazira 1.13 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.25 / defence 1.24 against Al-Jazira attack 0.72 / defence 1.15, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43% | Draw 31% | Al-Jazira 26%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 17%, Al-Jazira 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.83 PPG, Al-Jazira 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win broke the near-deadlock. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Jazira shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.