Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ajman at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai host Ajman at Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 25 August 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Pro League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajman — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Pro League fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.00 PPG, Ajman 3.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 0% and Ajman's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.80 xG and Ajman 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.985 / defence 1.150 | Ajman attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.707 / away 1.269. Data: 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 1 Ajman games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 24% | Draw 29% | Ajman 47%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Ajman 2.13. Ajman hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajman are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Aug 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 24% | Draw 29% | Ajman 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.80 / Ajman 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.985 / def 1.150 | Ajman attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.707 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Ajman (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Ajman xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman kicked off at 16:15 on Wednesday 25 August 2021 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 24% chance of winning, Ajman a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Ajman (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack at 0.98x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
24%
4.17
29%
3.39
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.04
1.24
Ajman xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
7%
14.44
21%
4.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 16.1 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.24 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ajman sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 3.00 PPG, Ajman on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Ajman's attacking output running into Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Ajman in 0%.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Ajman in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Ajman have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Ajman been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Ajman in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
0
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 9, Ajman have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Ajman 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 0% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 100% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Ajman tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Ajman in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defy the odds to beat Ajman 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Ajman 1-0 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.80 xG and Ajman 1.24 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ajman landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Ajman attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 24% | Draw 29% | Ajman 47%, with Ajman to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0%, Ajman 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.00 PPG, Ajman 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win broke the near-deadlock. Ajman managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.