Khorfakkan 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Khorfakkan face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai make the trip to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to face Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Thursday 20 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Khorfakkan have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are 1.20 PPG clear of Khorfakkan in recent Pro League fixtures (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Khorfakkan's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 0–4 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 70% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 67% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.10 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.154 / defence 1.286 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.864 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.191. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 Khorfakkan games / 33 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 31% | Draw 27% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Khorfakkan 80% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 31% | Draw 27% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Khorfakkan 1.10 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.154 / def 1.286 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.864 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 15:30 on Thursday 20 November 2025 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Khorfakkan 0 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 31% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (7 meetings): Khorfakkan 0W | Draws 1 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 6W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Khorfakkan's attack rating (1.15) and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (0.86x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
31%
3.21
27%
3.67
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.43
1.32
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.05
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.32 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 11W 8D 14L from 33 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 23W 8D 2L across 33 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.09 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 5W 7D 4L from 16 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 9W 6D 1L across 16 trips, a 2.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.91 scored and 0.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 23W 8D 2L in their last 33 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.38 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 4-0 on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Khorfakkan
2
Draws
8
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Khorfakkan, 62% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Khorfakkan) and 56% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Khorfakkan's games and 62% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Khorfakkan's matches and 56% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Khorfakkan and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Khorfakkan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Khorfakkan 0-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.10 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.32 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.15 / defence 1.29 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.86 / defence 0.71, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 31% | Draw 27% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 42%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.