Khorfakkan 0-0 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al Nasr travel to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to take on Khorfakkan. The game is scheduled for Thursday 15 September 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khorfakkan have posted 4W 1D 5L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Nasr have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Nasr have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khorfakkan 1.00 PPG, Al Nasr 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khorfakkan register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Nasr in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 1, Al Nasr 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 4–0 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al Nasr in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 64% versus Al Nasr 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 71% | Al Nasr 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.64 xG and Al Nasr 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.069 / defence 1.279 | Al Nasr attack 1.000 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.321. Data: 28 Khorfakkan games / 28 Al Nasr games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 23% | Al Nasr 39%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Al Nasr 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 60% | Al Nasr 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Sep 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 23% | Al Nasr 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Khorfakkan 1.64 / Al Nasr 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.069 / def 1.279 | Al Nasr attack 1.000 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Al Nasr xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 15 September 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Khorfakkan 0 - 0 Al Nasr.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 37% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Nasr?
Record (2 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 0 | Al Nasr 1W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Nasr in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
37%
2.68
23%
4.27
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.33
1.69
Al Nasr xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.50
8%
13.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.69 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 8W 4D 16L from 28 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Nasr, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 11L across 28 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 1.00 PPG, Al Nasr on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 6W 2D 6L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Nasr's away record stands at 4W 5D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.61 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Al Nasr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 8W 4D 16L in their last 28 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 10W 7D 11L in their last 28 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Nasr away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.43 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when Khorfakkan won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Khorfakkan
4
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 2, Al Nasr have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 57%, Al Nasr 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Khorfakkan and 79% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Khorfakkan's games and 71% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Khorfakkan's matches and 79% of Al Nasr's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Khorfakkan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Khorfakkan and Al Nasr drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.64 xG and Al Nasr 1.69 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khorfakkan fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al Nasr landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.07 / defence 1.28 against Al Nasr attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 23% | Al Nasr 39%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 71%, Al Nasr 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Nasr's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.00 PPG, Al Nasr 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.