Baniyas SC 1-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Baniyas SC welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baniyas SC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Baniyas SC) versus 0.90 (Al-Ittihad Kalba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Baniyas SC, 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 53% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 53% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.36 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.781 / defence 1.297 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.875 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.419. Baniyas SC's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Baniyas SC games / 47 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 32% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 43%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Baniyas SC 40% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 32% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Baniyas SC 1.36 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.781 / def 1.297 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.875 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Baniyas SC 1 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 32% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (3 meetings): Baniyas SC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (0.78) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
32%
3.08
24%
4.13
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.97
1.61
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
6%
15.44
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.61 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 14W 11D 22L from 47 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 13W 15D 19L across 47 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 1.13 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 7W 5D 11L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 5W 8D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.26 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 14W 11D 22L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 13W 15D 19L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.13 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baniyas SC
3
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 4, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 44%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Baniyas SC) and 48% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 39% of games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 52% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 48% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Baniyas SC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Baniyas SC 1-2 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.36 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.61 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.78 / defence 1.30 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 32% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 43%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 53%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.13 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.