Baniyas SC 0-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 39%, yet in-form Al Bataeh provide a compelling counter-argument — this Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Baniyas SC welcome Al Bataeh to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 September 2022 at 14:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baniyas SC at Baniyas Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Baniyas SC are significantly better at Baniyas Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Bataeh — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Bataeh — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.27 xG and Al Bataeh 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.889 / defence 0.878 | Al Bataeh attack 0.951 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.275. Data: 28 Baniyas SC games / 2 Al Bataeh games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 39% | Draw 31% | Al Bataeh 29%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Al Bataeh 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Bataeh (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 39% | Draw 31% | Al Bataeh 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Baniyas SC 1.27 / Al Bataeh 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.889 / def 0.878 | Al Bataeh attack 0.951 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al Bataeh xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 14:45 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Baniyas SC 0 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 39% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Al Bataeh (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baniyas SC's attack at 0.89x the league average against Al Bataeh's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.19
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.06
Al Bataeh xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.06 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Baniyas SC have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Bataeh's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 1.50 PPG, Al Bataeh on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baniyas SC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Al Bataeh in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Early Season
Al Bataeh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Baniyas SC or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Baniyas SC
4
Draws
3
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 1, Al Bataeh have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al Bataeh 0-1 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al Bataeh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Baniyas SC's recent matches and 50% of Al Bataeh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Baniyas SC's recent games and 50% of Al Bataeh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Bataeh defy the odds to beat Baniyas SC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Baniyas SC 0-1 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.27 xG and Al Bataeh 1.06 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baniyas SC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Al Bataeh attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 39% | Draw 31% | Al Bataeh 29%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al Bataeh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 50%, Al Bataeh 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.50 PPG, Al Bataeh 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Bataeh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.