Al Wahda FC 1-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Khorfakkan travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 May 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wahda FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 5W 3D 2L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Wahda FC, 1 for Khorfakkan and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Dec 2023, ended 2–3 with Khorfakkan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Wahda FC trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 58% versus Khorfakkan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 58% | Khorfakkan 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 2.10 xG and Khorfakkan 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.075 / defence 0.922 | Khorfakkan attack 0.900 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.703. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Al Wahda FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Al Wahda FC games / 50 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 52% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Khorfakkan 4.00. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 80% | Khorfakkan 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 52% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Wahda FC 2.10 / Khorfakkan 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.075 / def 0.922 | Khorfakkan attack 0.900 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.703 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Khorfakkan xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 52% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (5 meetings): Al Wahda FC 2W | Draws 2 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Wahda FC's attack at 1.07x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
52%
1.90
22%
4.45
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.51
1.41
Khorfakkan xG
1.90
52%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
12%
8.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
3%
32.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.41 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 27W 12D 11L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan's form line: 12W 11D 27L from 50 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (11W 8D 6L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 2W 8D 15L from 25 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.22 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 27W 12D 11L in their last 50 games (1.86 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 12W 11D 27L in their last 50 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.64 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
4
Draws
1
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 64%, Khorfakkan 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al Wahda FC and 64% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al Wahda FC's games and 64% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 64% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 2.10 xG and Khorfakkan 1.41 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Wahda FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against Khorfakkan attack 0.90 / defence 1.30, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 52% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 25%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 58%, Khorfakkan 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.